Thoughts on 2015 general elections

How sincere, how patriotic is a leader who threatens the very mass of men he wants to rule with war if the electoral contest does not end in his favour? How inane and psychotic would it look if one of the footballing countries (Brazil, Spain, Argentina) threatens FIFA with war and mayhem if the contest does not end in its favour? One of the south-south governors was alleged to have threatened that his party will spear – head civil disobedience in the country if the APC loses the 2015 presidential election. This governor should not smear the APC with his image problem. Again this governor left no one in doubt of his pessimistic disposition to 2015 electoral outcome when he threatened that the APC would form a parallel government should the outcome of the 2015 presidential election not favour the APC. Why would this south-south governor cross his bridge before getting to it.

The Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) should analyze and diagnose the bases of some or all-bellicose and reckless utterances. Another APC stalwart Prince Tony Momoh came up with another nerve – wracking script inside Sunday Sun of 23/11/14. Let me paraphrase this script. Today there are more than 30 million registered members of APC. Let’s see the register of PDP on the basis of which it always claimed to be the largest party in Africa!! APC is everywhere in Nigeria today. There is nowhere the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) can terrorize the All Progressives Congress (APC). Before now, PDP could terrorize the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) where it had no foothold. PDP could terrorize each of the pre-merger parties i.e. the CPC, ANPP, ACN where they had no foothold. But now, ACN, CPC, ANPP…….have come under one mega-party called the APC. Thank God, we have a majoritarian democracy, so whoever polls the highest vote wins. Politics is a game of numbers.
While the voice of one of the south-south governors is that of one who sees difficulty in every opportunity, Tony Momoh’s voice is one that sees opportunity in every difficulty. Now let me interpose the following questions. From where does Tony Momoh derive this confidence of his? Has the INEC bothered to put on its thinking cap to ascertain why dominant parties went on aggressive membership drive and registration? It may be assumed that everybody in their membership register will, all things being equal, vote for APC at the polls.
When Prince Tony Momoh called on PDP to embark on competitor benchmarking it is to enable Nigerians to know the strength of its membership. But it does appear the PDP purposefully put a lid on the total number of its registered members. But does INEC see nothing fishy or messy in this conflictual affair? The worrisome and unfortunate aspect of this benchmarking of voters registration by the dominant political parties is that while these parties have their own registers, the INEC cannot boast of a valid and authentic voters’ register at National and States Level.

Rather the extant INEC voters’ registers have been bungled and muddled up through clerical inefficiency if not collusion of INEC staffers with vested interests. Let INEC be informed that on account of devious insider – dealing between INEC staffers and related parties, on-going permanent voter card registration exercise is vitiated. There is no authentic basis for regarding the output documents (the PVCS) as valid election documents. Those who failed to register with parties in their strongholds may not see their names on the print-outs from 2011 voters’ registration updates. Thus many adults who did not take part in parties’ membership registration may be automatically disenfranchised unless INEC devices strategies to issue PVCS to every 2011 card carrying voter.
If I am asked to comment on the “2015 General Elections” I won’t scruple to say that “We are in trouble”. The source documents for holding the elections are vitiated and not tamper – proof. Membership registers compiled by parties are already a handy basis for contesting the validity and accuracy of electoral outcomes once such outcomes don’t favour the plaintiff or losing party. True- to- type, a dominant two party contest will almost always present violent binary conflicts and contentious outcomes given our cultural traits and negatively skewed economic social and political circumstances.
For instance, Prince Tony Momoh did not equivocate or mince words on the exact number of APC registered members. Therefore through process benchmarking the APC has placed its electoral fortunes at 30 million voters at the presidential elections. If INEC registered only 50million nation-wide, it could be contended that 30 million of these voters will cast their votes for APC. But this may be a mere linear interpolation of electoral outcomes. Many whose names are on PDP registers may on election day vote for APC. It is also possible that many people who registered with APC will vote for PDP on election day. Hence the competitor benchmarking strategy employed by the APC and PDP may not give expected outcomes. Thus Inspite of what party registers say, unless and until validated by electoral outcomes, they remain a hasty basis for jumping to conclusions. Parties have made voting decision difficult for registered voters. This is because our  parties are not ideological parties. A PDP villain of today is the APC hero of tomorrow. Through carpet crossing rooks and crooks, place-seekers and charlatans spoil and despoil our politics and political economy. The PDP and APC have everything in common including politics of carpet crossing and charlatanism. So how does the undiscerning and uncritical voter distinguish between six and half a dozen?
I would have been highly elated if the likes of Alhaji Tambuwal, Chibuike Amaechi, Peter Obi, Godswill Akpabio, Raji Fashola, Rochas Okorocha, Sule Lamido and some other performing governors had come together to form a model or exemplary party to give us an ideology based mega party. This done our party system will move from this conflict riddled two party system to the more peaceful two and a half party system. This way they would develop and deepen our democracy to better serve the people of this nation. So far only a few politicians like the distinguished Senate President David Mark realizes that politicians owe the electorate reputation accountability either as progressives or conservatives.